Saturday, November 30, 2013

Gold Coins Shortage: Does It Mean Tight Supply?

Yes, if it's gold coins you're after. But not if it's gold bullion in other forms...
OVER the last few years, during the great investment demand for precious metals, we have seen sporadic shortages in silver and gold coins, writes Miguel Perez-Santalla at BullionVault.
Many people have written about these shortages as a harbinger of things to come in precious metals more widely. One of the fads is to decry supply issues in silver and now recently gold. However, the truth of the matter is less dramatic, if not quite so simple.
In most cases, supply issues with silver or gold coins are caused by abnormal or let's say surprising increases in demand from bullion coin buyers. Simply put, coins don't come out of thin air. They need to be manufactured. This all takes time and money. No one wants to tie up their money in a product that is not going to sell. That exposes gold and silver buyers to "just in time" inventory gaps if it's coins they want to buy.
Imagine you are selling a low-cost product with a high margin. It is much more likely that you will have enough inventories for almost all eventualities. Look at a typical retail product – how about lip balm? I don't really know the costs but I can guess. Some of the more premium brands sell individually for $10 each and more, but many quality brands sell for $1.00 or so.
I have never seen a retailer that sells this product run out. Though it is possible, most likely that chance is very remote because I believe their profit margin is probably around 100% or more. This typically is called the Keystone markup. My guess is that the retailer pays lower than $.50 for each one of these $1.00 lip balms. So their profit of 50 cents or more covers any carrying charges that may be represented from holding the inventory.
Now let's take a look at gold coins. The price of gold currently is $1250 an ounce. If I am a distributor selling gold coins and the average quantity I sell in a month is 5,000 one-ounce coins that would represent sales of $6,250,000 plus my margin. This not only is a lot of gold but represents a lot of money.
Do I always have on hand 5,000 ounces of gold? No, because financing eats away at the profitability, even at today's low cost of interest. Also, tying up the capital in inventory may not let you properly cover all your expenses such as salaries, healthcare, supplies and utilities. So in the end I may stock 500 coins or maybe 1,000 at a time.
If I were making 100% markup then I may carry 5,000 ounces. But that does not exist in the gold coin industry. The wholesaler is lucky to make a quarter to half a per cent per ounce. Without doing the math it's obvious that financing costs are significant in this scenario. But a comparison of the inventory of holding the full amount at a 6% financing would represent an overhead of over $31,000 a month. Holding only the 1,000 in inventory at 6% is a little over $6,000 per month. This doesn't even take into account all the other factors in running a coins business.
The decision to hold lower inventory levels is good management of capital. What this tells us is that the demand the manufacturer sees is usually on an as needed basis. Which means that they also go through the same motions to calculate cost, and to produce what they believe is needed. In the end the amount being produced on what is known demand will never be enough for an explosion of short term demand. But this does not mean that there is any difficulty in acquiring the raw material needed to produce the gold coins or bars.
Prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, for instance, the demand for gold and silver coins and bars began to grow. The pace became brisk and the industry began to expand. Unfortunately, the US Mint – like most other producers worldwide – was not prepared for the explosion that was to come in what proved the near future. But they did begin at that time to explore for more suppliers of what the coin industry call "blanks".
Blanks are the basis for the coins. The Mint contracts outside vendors to produce the round shape gold or silver pieces needed for their coins. They have no edging, they have no artwork and they are at the lowest form of preparatory production. For the Silver Eagle, back in the beginning of the rising demand, it had been hard for the US Mint to find another supplier in addition to the one they already had.
The question most people would put is, why? The simple answer is because sales of gold and silver bars and coins had been so low for an extended number of years that there were very few companies with the capability to produce blanks in the United States of America, nor in the wider world for that matter. It took quite some time until they were able to authorize another producer, as coins are not a simple product. It requires high-quality processes and also a high level of confidence from the government that the supplier will be able to meet the specifications and demands when required of them.
With this additional capacity, the production of Silver Eagles has continued to grow. But it has been sporadic and cyclical. And again there come moments – inevitable events – where immediate supply does not meet immediate demand. It is at these times that silver and gold coins in supply go to a significant premium. This is caused by the simplest of supply and demand fundamentals.
Isn't this unique to gold and silver? No, it's much like any other product. When Apple launched the iPhone 4, I recall people lined up at the Apple store on Fifth Avenue for blocks to get in and be the first to buy the new phone. Some of the early buyers were already ready online to sell their phones at a tremendous premium, and make a large profit. Then they would come back a few weeks later and buy the phone again at the regular price.
Ask yourself: The people who paid that premium online for these iPhones – were they thinking that the world was about to run out of plastic? That we may run out of circuit boards? Or that Apple wouldn't produce these phones ever again at any price? No, it was none of these. It was simply a very human desire to have the new product in their hands immediately.
Now, in the gold and silver markets the same thing can occur. But there is a different concern, because of the investment value in owning physical bullion. Here the worry is that people may not be able to buy at the lower base price of gold and silver, and that the price of the commodity itself will also continue climbing. Hence they want to lock in their price on the product before it goes higher.
No, there are no shortages of gold and silver at this moment. Unless we go back to the gold or silver currency standard, with government demand for bullion locking massive new quantities inside central-bank vaults, I don't see any physical shortage to come. But because of how coin producers, wholesalers and retailers need to manage their capital – as well as the physical logistics of putting metal into your hand – this corner of the market is subject to short-term shortages. Retail bars and coins are only a small corner of the gold and silver market, however. They represented less than 9% of supply last year in fact, based on World Gold Counciland Silver Institute data.
So what of the excessive premiums being paid by some investors today to lock in their gold and silver price? Could that cost be avoided?
If we were talking 20 years ago the answer would have been no. Because there were no other competitive products to offer physical gold and silver ownership. But modern technology helps offer the public alternative products today. Now you can buy gold and silver from your laptop, desktop or smartphone, and sell them just as easily when you choose. All these service are offered in a transparent and liquid precious metals exchange online at
So unless you need to own gold coins and bars held in your home right now, there are better alternatives. Why pay a higher premium for a product that you don't need at that moment? Even if you do want to buy those coins instead of holding gold or silver at low cost in professional, secure storage, then you could still buy the gold or silver at BullionVault as a hedge, waiting until physical supply of the coins again meets demand and premiums retreat. At that time an individual could then sell their vaulted holdings and buy the coins, without losing money due to excessive premiums or to market moves in the price. And all while paying the lowest costs in outright precious metals ownership.
Many times, of course, solutions exist which others would prefer you not to know about. In the end the regular gold bullion coin and bar items will return to their normal premiums, when coin supply meets coin demand. Why not look at other methods to cut your costs or hedge your base commodity price risk through another vehicle? Remember, patience is a virtue and good things come to those who wait.
Buy gold at the lowest prices in the safest vaults today...

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Thursday, November 28, 2013

Gold Price "Targets $1180", Asian Demand "Yet to Re-Emerge", But Short Sellers Warned as Market Gets "Overstretched"


GOLD PRICE losses of 3.6% last week were extended Monday morning in Asia and London, with silver also falling again as world stock markets rose.
The gold price dropped below $1230 per ounce for the first time since the first week of July.
Silver prices added to last week's 4.5% drop against the Dollar to hit 3-month lows at $19.61.
Gold prices for UK investors fell to new 39-month lows beneath £760 per ounce.
"Downside risks predominate in the short term," says a note from German investment bank and bullion retailer Commerzbank, saying that in Dollar terms "the gold price may well test the $1180 mark – its three-year low from the end of June."
Having called $1240 the "next support" late Friday, bulllion bank and market maker Scotia Mocatta's technical analysis also points to $1180, "the 100% retracement" of this summer's rally.
"The big issue is still the monetary tightening in the US," says analyst Michael Widmer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 
"As soon as [tapering] comes back, you will get further downward pressure on gold prices."
"Absenting any change in the direction of the Dollar," agrees Jonathan Butler at Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi, "gold could continue to retrace its late June low of $1180, at which point physical demand [from Asia] may re-emerge."
Despite holding at an $11 premium per ounce above the price of London settlement, China's gold price also fell Monday in subdued trade.
Compared to China's GDP, private spending on gold has risen twice as fast in 2013 to date according to analysis by Bullionvault.
Speculators trading US derivatives last week raised their net betting that the US Dollar will rise against other currencies by almost one-fifth to more than $15 billion.
Gold futures and options trading meantime saw speculative players cut their net betting on higher gold prices by 14%, down to the lowest level since early August.
Equal last week to fewer than 240 tonnes, including small as well as larger, hedge fund traders, the speculative net long position on gold prices averaged 722 tonnes in the five years to end-2012.
It's so far averaged 332 tonnes equivalent in 2013.
"Gold still looks like a good short in our view," the Wall Street Journal quoted technical strategist Chris Verrone at brokerage and money-managers Strategas Research Partners in New York on Friday, also targeting a fall to $1180.
But now, warns a technical analysis from French investment bank and London bullion market makers Societe Generale today, "The daily indicators are testing supports and [are] overstretched.
"This suggests caution" says SocGen, with $1222 acting as "a key support".
On the equity markets, meantime, the FTSE100 index here in London briefly poked its head above 6,700 for the fourth time in a week, but held 2% below June's near 6-year high.
Futures trading in New York's S&P500 index today set it ready to open above 1800 for the first time ever.
"External markets continue to create an unfavourable backdrop for gold," notes Barclays Captial.
"The physical market [meantime] lends little support during the seasonally strong period for consumption."
"With the Fed perhaps stepping back" from QE money printing stimulus, says Jeffrey Sherman, a manager at the $53 billion DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles, also quoted by Bloomberg, "it's hard to make a case for inflationary behavior out there.
"People aren't as worried about inflation, thus you're not seeing people buying gold."

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Apa perlu buat bila harga emas jatuh

Kejatuhan harga emas adalah perkara yang paling ditakuti oleh pelabur emas. Namun berbeza dengan penyimpan emas, kejatuhan harga emas memang dinanti-nantikan. Semasa kejatuhan herga emas, kebanyakan pembeli adalah dikalangan mereka yang menyimpan emas atau yang membuat perniagaan emas. Kejatuhan harga emas sebenarnya memang turut dirasai oleh penyimpan atau peniaga emas. Namun teknik mensama ratakan harga emas digunakan bagi mengurangkan faktor kerugian.

Semasa membuat pembelian emas, anda tidak boleh tamak kerana kemungkinan harga yang anda beli bukan lah harga terendah. Selain itu, pembeli emas juga perlu memastikan mereka hanya menggunakan hanya separuh sahaja dari tunai yang mereka ada untuk membeli emas.

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Harga Emas Di Paras Rendah

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


It’s time to go for gold

GEORGE TOWN: Plunging gold prices make it a good time for buyers and investors to stock up on the precious metal as the price has dipped by 25% since January. 
Public Gold Marketing executive chairman Datuk Louis Ng Chun Hau said the price of gold yesterday was about US$1,240 (RM4,000) per ounce, compared to US$1,670 (RM5,050) per ounce in January. 
He said price of gold soared from about US$280 per ounce to over US$1,900 per ounce between 2001 and September 2011, but since 2012, the price started to fall, with this year recording a serious decline. 
Chun Hau, however, said he does not expect the price of the precious metal to fall any lower than US$1,050 (RM3,379) per ounce. 
He said Public Gold’s sales of gold this year increased by 15% in terms of weight, driven by the low gold prices. 
He suggested that people use 5% to 10% of their personal finances to invest in gold, as it is considered a stable investment. 
Federation of Goldsmiths and Jewellers Association of Malaysia’s president Ng Yih Pyng said it is a good time to buy gold, whether it is for investment purposes or as keepsake. 
He said the price of gold is seeing a decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar. 
Yih Pyng added that even if the price did not dip, gold merchants usually recorded good sales between November and February due to the festive season and weddings. 
He said the past two weeks saw an increase in the number of customers checking out prices and buying gold jewellery. 
“Merchants have also noted that year-to-date sales had increased by 15%,” he said. 
Tamilarasii’s Tangge Maligai Jewellers outlet employee, known only as Muthukumar, said the number of customers to the shop in Market Street, has been increasing since last week. 
“Usually business is slow after Deepavali, but many people are taking opportunity of the low gold prices to buy it as it is a sound investment. 
“The price has dropped to RM123.50 per gramme compared to RM127 per gramme last week and many people are taking advantage of this,” he said. 
Devan Jewellers Sdn Bhd manager M. Krisnan said many of his customers were however, adopting the “wait-and-see” approach as they believe the price could plunge further. 
“My advice is that they should buy now as the price is already low. 
“Nobody can predict what will happen next,” he said. 
“Before this, the price difference was only between RM1 and RM2 per gramme, but now it is lower by more than RM10 per gramme,” Krisnan added.

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Sunday, November 24, 2013

Republicans Asserting Reliance on Gold as World Loses Faith


As the price of gold hit new highs following the 2008 financial crisis, Republicans saw the yellow metal’s steady ascent as a sign of trouble ahead.

To Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, record gold prices in 2010 heralded “a lower standard of living for many Americans.” Representative Ted Poe of Texas foresaw “a blast of inflation that will crush the middle class” adding: “Where gold prices go, other prices follow.” Fellow Texas RepresentativeRon Paul, a perennial critic of the Federal Reserve, warned that “confidence is being lost in the entire fiat monetary system,” a reference to money created by central banks.
The Republicans’ confidence in gold as an economic and financial barometer proved ill-founded. Five years after the crisis, the dollar’s value measured against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners is little changed. Prices have risen at an annual 1.4 percent rate, less than half the 50-year average and lower than the Fed’s 2 percent target.
By July, gold had slid 36 percent from its September 2011 high of more than $1,900 an ounce, the steepest percentage decline since prices plunged by 58 percent over 21 months ending in June 1982.
While many Wall Street analysts, including Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., say gold will continue to decline as the economy grows, some leading Republicans continue to urge a special role for bullion.

Sound Dollar

So far this year, 52 lawmakers lined up to cosponsor Texas Representative Kevin Brady’s “Sound Dollar Act,” which would require the Fed to keep prices stable by monitoring a variety of assets, including gold, and by tracking “the value of the United States dollar relative to gold.”
Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah introduced similar legislation in February. Neither bill has been acted upon.
“It’s a stupid idea,” Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed economist, said in an interview. “It’s pretty clear the Fed thinks so, too, since they do the opposite. They go out of their way to exclude commodities.”
Gagnon, now with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, says the Fed tracks most closely “core” inflation readings that exclude often-volatile commodities.
Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, also has been among Republicans who’ve suggested the Fed should peg the dollar to a “basket of commodities” that would include gold.

Eliminating Taxes

In April, three days after gold completed its worst two-day decline in more than 30 years, Lee, joined by Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, proposed legislation to eliminate taxes on gold and silver currency declared legal tender by federal or state governments. The measure would effectively allow the metals, now taxed at sale as collectibles, to serve as alternative currencies.
Spokesmen for Brady, Ryan, Lee, Cruz and Paul declined to comment. Poe’s office didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Rich Danker, director of economics for the American Principles Project, a Washington-basedorganization that advocates smaller government and free markets, calls legislation such as Lee’s a “prerequisite” for a return to the gold standard, which his group supports.
Danker dismissed gold’s recent decline. “The gold standard has never been about the floating price of gold,” he said. “Gold’s long-term value has always been steady. There’s no reason to think that would change over hundreds of years.”

19th Century

The idea of anchoring U.S. currency to a precious metal dominated economic debates in the late 19th century with factions dueling over the use of gold, silver or both. Since the Democratic Party split in 1896 between the pro-gold incumbent President Grover Cleveland and his intra-party rival William Jennings Bryan, gold has been almost entirely a Republican obsession.
“I can’t think of any Democrat who’s for it,” said Richard Grossman, economics professor at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut, and author of the book “Wrong: Nine Economic Policy Disasters and What We Can Learn From Them.”
President Franklin D. Roosevelt, a Democrat, took the dollar off the gold standard in one of his first moves to combat the Great Depression in 1933. President Richard Nixon, a Republican, broke the last link to gold in August 1971, ending the ability of foreign central banks to convert dollars into a fixed quantity of the metal.

‘QE Infinity’

In a November 2012 speech to an APP conference, Cruz, a Tea Party favorite, assailed the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly asset purchases -- an economic stimulus program known as quantitative easing -- which he says puts the dollar at risk.
“We’re in the middle of QE infinity right now,” he said. “And when you see the currency debased, it is a cruel tax on everyone working and struggling and saving. As we’ve seen gold skyrocket, and we’ve seen oil skyrocket, we’ve seen food skyrocket, we’ve seen the cost of living for those struggling to climb the economic ladder get higher and higher and higher.”
Gold fans bemoan the dollar’s loss of purchasing power in terms of how much gold it will buy, though that hasn’t affected the cost of living. Since December 2008, the consumer price index has risen at an annual rate of 1.6 percent, compared with 2.8 percent during the 2001-2009 Bush administration.

Bernanke Stumped

The meaning of gold price movements remains a subject of dispute among economists. In July, Republican Senator Dean Heller of Nevada asked Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to explain gold’s rollercoaster rise and fall.
“Nobody really understands gold prices,” said Bernanke, who was chairman of Princeton University’s economics department. “And I don’t pretend to really understand them either.”
Heller today posed a similar question to Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen at a hearing on her nomination to succeed Bernanke.
“I don’t think anybody has a very good model of what makes gold prices go up or down,” Yellen said. “It is an asset that people want to hold when they’re very fearful about potential financial market catastrophe or economic troubles.”
Further complicating efforts to fathom price movements are profound changes in the gold market. The rise of exchange-traded funds, for example, opened the market to retail investors, allowing them to buy shares representing physical holdings of gold without the hassle of taking delivery.
Such funds, which held more than 84 million ounces of gold in December compared with less than 2 million ounces eight years earlier, were a major force behind gold’s pre-financial crisis surge, according to Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.
“Before, you had to buy gold bullion,” he said. “Now ETFs gave access to people who didn’t have it before.”

Safe Haven

During gold’s 12-year bull market, the metal was touted as a store of value as well as an investment in its own right. Popular interest in the traditional safe haven mushroomed alongside fear of an eroding dollar. Gold prices roughly tripled in five years, topping $1,000 an ounce for the first time in March 2008.
On March 10, 2009, Republican Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho introduced into the Congressional Record a letter from a constituent he identified as “Adam,” who cited an 18th-century law to urge the death penalty for those responsible for the dollar’s shrinkage.
“Heads should have rolled after we abandoned the gold and silver standards,” the letter read. “I am sure you know what debasing currency is. This is what helped bring Rome to an end.”
Interest in gold rose alongside the Fed’s unprecedented expansion of credit to fight the recession. From around $900 billion in August 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded to its current $3.85 trillion. Gold completed 12 consecutive years of higher prices in 2012.

Republican Platform

That same year, the belief that gold’s rise signaled a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar inspired a provision in the Republican Party platform calling for a study of a “metallic basis for U.S. currency,” a possible return to the gold standard. The move was more than just a sop to supporters of Paul’s longshot presidential bid, according to Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, the platform committee chairwoman.
The platform planks were “adopted because they are things that Republicans agree on,” Blackburn told the Financial Times. “This is something that we think needs to be done.”
Supporters of a new gold standard -- wandering in the political wilderness since a 1982 Reagan administration commission squelched their last bid -- welcomed the discussion. Elsewhere, the idea was derided as a relic of a bygone age. Bernanke already had ruled it out, saying in a March 2012 lecture at George Washington University that it “would not be feasible for both practical reasons and policy reasons.”

State Lawmakers

Elite opposition did nothing to quell interest in gold outside the nation’s capital. Before the metal’s April price plunge -- its worst in 30 years -- several states considered proposals to recognize bullion as currency. A lawmaker in Texas proposed creating a Texas Bullion Depository to store gold, an idea championed by Republican Governor Rick Perry. Utah passed a bill making gold and silver coins legal tender in 2011, when it also eliminated state capital gains or other taxes on the coins.
In Utah, with a population of 2.8 million, about 250 people are participating in a pilot program that lets them pay bills from an account established with deposits of gold, said Lawrence Hilton, an attorney and chairman of the Utah Precious Metals Association, which established the initiative.
The number of participants has risen from 100 in April, despite gold’s decline, he says. The group encourages members to buy at regular intervals, saying that will smooth out price fluctuations and hedge against inflation.

Unreliable Indicator

Gold actually is an unreliable inflation indicator, according to recent academic research. Economists Jonathan Batten of Australia’s Monash University, Cetin Ciner of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington and Brian Lucey of Trinity College, Dublin studied the relationship between gold and inflation since 1985 and concluded “a stable link between these variables does not exist.”
Likewise, Andrew Ang of Columbia University wrote in 2012 that gold has only a 1 percent correlation with inflation. “Gold has not been an inflation hedge over the last 130 years,” he wrote, adding that gold prices demonstrate a strong tendency to revert to their long-term average.
Americans’ fervor for gold as an investment has also ebbed. In an April Gallup survey, 24 percent of respondents called the metal “the best long-term investment,” down from 34 percent in August 2011.
Gold fans are undeterred by studies or 27 months of falling prices. “Could you have a period of several months, or even several years, where gold is in a downward trend? Yes, that can happen,” said Hilton. “But it should come around.”
Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Saturday, November 23, 2013

2014 Gold Prices "Driven" by US Fed Tapering & Rates

US Fed policy will impact gold prices in 2014, say analysts, but uncertainty reigns...
GOLD PRICES in 2014 will be set by possible "tapering" of quantitative easing bond purchases by the US Federal Reserve, as well as expectations on its interest rate policy, according to analysts.
"We see little prospect of any tapering announcement [in 2013]," says Citigroup analyst Edward L.Morse in the bank's 2014 Annual Market Outlook for Commodities.
"March will be the earliest possible date for a possible tapering announcement," he concludes. Because January 2014 will then revive the debt ceiling debate in Congress, and new Fed chair Janet Yellen will then take charge in February.
Even with interest rates still set at zero, however, "fevered tapering speculation will push gold prices towards $1200 per ounce" as March approaches reckons Citi. But strong gold demand from China will then provide "support".
"After taper starts and ends," agrees TD Securities analyst Bart Melek in Toronto, "prices are likely to be driven more by fabrication demand and physical gold investment, with speculative interest maintaining less of a role."
But looking further ahead to US interest rate policy, he says that "Speculative expectations of what real interest rates are likely to be in the future are the key initial trigger and driver of gold prices."
Real interest rates are the level of annual yield paid to savers and investors over and above the pace of inflation. The connection between gold prices and real rateshas long been a key feature of investment analysis.
Looking at 2014 gold prices, "the market's inability to project real [US] interest rates into the future with a great level of certainty makes this market subject to abrupt sentiment changes," says Melek. 
New research from the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve said Monday that 10% of primary dealers in US government bonds now expect interest rates to start rising in the second half of 2014.
More than half of the economists surveyed see rates rising sometime in 2015. Almost one-in-fifteen, however, sees a delay until 2017.
Gold prices peaked in 2011 as real interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds hit 30-year lows. Real rates have since risen, and gold prices fallen.

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Friday, November 22, 2013

Tip Membeli Barangan Kemas

Setiap kali ada bonus mesti penuh kedai emas diserbu tidak kira semasa harga emas murah atau semasa harga mencanak naik. Namun beberapa tip perlu anda pertimbangkan sebelum membuat pembelian barangan kemas. 

Susut nilai yang tinggi
Sebelum anda beli barang kemas, anda perlu ketahui bahawa susut nilai barang kemas adalah sangat tinggi. Kebiasaannya susut nilai yang ditetapkan oleh kedai adalah sebanyak 25% kerana ianya akan dinilai sebagai emas terpakai. Namun anda jangan terkejut jika susut nilai yang ditetapkan adalah lebih tinggi kadang kala sehingga 40%. Susut nilai yang sangat tinggi ini mungkin disebabkan kerosakan yang berlaku pada barang kemas yang anda jual. Pekedai akan mengira kos membaiki barangan tersebut dan ianya akan ditolak dari nilai emas yang anda jual. Jarang sekali berlaku pekedai tidak mengira kos membaiki barangan yang diterima mereka kerana kebanyakan pekedai biasa akan membaiki barang kemas yang dibeli dan dijual semula sebagai emas baharu selepas dicuci dan nampak baru.

Pilih barang kemas pada harga rendah

Harga barangan kemas yang ditawarkan oleh pekedai adalah berbeza-beza. Namun ada juga pekedai yang besar dan mempunyai banyak rangkaian yang menggunakan harga yang standard yang telah ditetapkan oleh FGJAM. Sebagai pembeli anda perlu rajin windows shopping di kedai emas sebelum membuat pembelian. Ini bagi memastikan anda mendapat barangan kemas yang diinginkan dengan harga yang lebih rendah. Namun kualiti dan kuantitinya adalah sama. Kebiasaannya kedai emas yang menawarkan harga yang rendah berada di pekan-pekan kecil atau bandar-bandar kecil. Kedai emas kecil biasanya tidak mementingkan keuntungan atas satu barangan, tetapi mereka pentingkan kuantiti pembeli yang membeli barang kemas dari mereka.

Pilih barang kemas yang kos upah rendah
Tahukah anda bahawa setiap barang kemas yang anda beli dikenakan upah pembuatan. Upah yang dikenakan adalah berbeza bagi setiap barang kemas. Kos upah bergantung kepada design barang kemas tersebut. Lagi susah untuk membentuk sesuatu barang kemas, lagi tinggi upah yang dikenakan. Upah juga berbeza bagi setiap kedai walau dari rangkaian kedai yang sama. So anda perlu tawar-menawar dengan jurujual untuk mengurangkan kos upah. Namun ada juga kedai emas yang telah memasukkan kos upah di dalam kos barang kemas. Kebiasaannya  semasa harga emas mahal, banyak pekedai tidak mengenakan kos upah kerana mereka menggunakan stok emas yang dobeli semasa harga murah dan kos upah mampu ditampung dengan kenaikan harga emas.

Pilih barag kemas yang padu
Kepaduan (betul ker ayat nie) sesuatu barang kemas akan menentukan tahap kerosakan yang akan dialami sepanjang ianya dipakai oleh anda. Barang kemas yang berongga akan mudah rosak atau kemek berbanding barang kemas padu yang lebih kuat. Selain itu, barang kemas padu lebih mudah untuk dipajak jika anda berada dalam kecemasan dan memerlukan tunai segera.

Pilih barang kemas ketulinan tinggi
Suatu barang kemas memang cantik dipandang tambahan apabila ianya dibuat dengan pelbagai warna yang memikat hati anda.  Pembuat barang kemas akan menghasilkan emas dengan warna kuning, merah atau putih dengan mencampurkan emas bersama tembaga dan perak. Terdapat juga campuran zink, nikel, palladium, dan rhodium bagi mendapatkan warna putih. Jika tembaga ditambah melebihi perak, emas yang terhasil mempunyai warna merah dan jika perak ditambah melebihi tembaga, emas yang terhasil mempunyai warna kuning pucat dan adakalanya putih. Campuran pelbagai logam asing ini akan mengurangkan tahap ketulinan emas yang anda beli. Kebiasaannya kutulinan emas sama ada 916, 999 ditanda kecil disebelah dalam barang kemas anda. Seeloknya anda pilih barang kemas yang berketulinan tinggi bagi mengekalkan nilainya.

Pilih barang kemas tiada permata

Emas bersifat lembut dan jika barang kemas yang dibuat menggunakan emas 999 (tulin), ianya mudah lekok walau digigit dengan gigi berbanding kualiti lebih rendah. Untuk membentuk suatu barang kemas yang bertatah permata, tukang emas memerlukan emas yang keras dan semestinya kualitinya rendah. Ini bagi memastikan permata yang dipasang tidak tertanggal. Ada juga pekedai yang menggunakan campuran emas kualiti rendah dengan emas 916, namun harga yang ditetapkan adalah pada harga 916. Selain itu, Barang kemas yang mempunyai permata sukar untuk dipajak atau jika dijual harganya sangat rendah. Seorang rakan pernah memberi tahu bahawa sebentuk cincin yang dibeli bagi perkahwinan hanya dapat dijual pada harga RM70 sahaja walau harga semasa beli adalah RM1500.

Jaminan trade in atau belian balik
Jika anda berhajat untuk menjual balik barang kemas anda atau u=ingin trade in bagi mendapat design terbaru barang kemas, anda perlu memilih kedai yang menjanjikan terima trade in balik atau belian semula. Kebiasaannya jika ada jaminan balik sebegini, mereka memerlukan resit ori bagi tujuan transaksi. Namun jika ada jaminan belian balik kebiasaannya susut nilai yang ditawar adalah sekitar 20% - 23% manakala bagi trade in adalah sehingga 18% bergantung kepada design barang kemas. Namun jika barang kemas tersebut rosak, nilainya akan menjadi lagi rendah.

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Thursday, November 21, 2013

People's Bank of China "Buying Gold, Supports Prices"


China's central bank seen as a big gold buyer in 2013 by leading analyst...
GOLD BUYING by the People's Bank of China may have totaled 300 tonnes so far in 2013, helping "support prices" during the worst drop in 30 years according to a leading precious metals analyst.
"We've seen tremendous amounts of gold go into Hong Kong for onward shipment to mainland China," says Philip Klapwijk, formerly of Thomson Reuters GFMS, in his first public report as CEO of new consultancy Precious Metals Insights. Domestic mine output, already the world's No.1 since 2007, has also risen this year.
But gold buying data from China's jewelry, industrial and investment sector "do not seem to account fully for this surge in supply," says Klapwijk.
To explain the gap, "anecdotal information" should be used to supplement official and reported data, says Klapwijk. Because not all aspects of the global or Chinese gold markets are transparent for precise analysis. And what Klapwijk calls "a growing contribution" to China's demand would seem to come thanks to the People's Bank.
"China needs to import a substantial amount of gold to meet its soaring local demand," the report says. But reviewing the available data, supply to meet China's demand for buying gold "comfortably exceeded" 1,000 tonnes in the first half of 2013 alone, Precious Metals Insights goes on.
The discrepancy "clearly implies that the Chinese authorities have been acquiring gold," says Klapwijk, with a chart showing perhaps 300 tonnes of gold buying by the central bank in the first half of 2013, when gold prices slumped.
The People's Bank of China last updated the world on its state gold bullion reserves in 2009, reporting a sharp rise to 1054 tonnes. Other analysts have recently pointed to the gap between China's reported private demand and supply (meaning imports and mine output), again concluding the "suspicion" that the People's Bank was buying gold, as Joyce Liu at Phillip Futures in Singapore put it to the Wall Street Journal last month.
"Undoubtedly," says Philip Klapwijk, quoted separately by Bloomberg News in Singapore on Thursday, the fact that the central bank has been buying gold in 2013 "has provided support for prices, which could have been weaker" without it.

Abdullah Bin Mohammad


Tuesday, November 19, 2013

One Million Strong in Gold


The biggest gold ETF still counts 1.1 million stockholders in the GLD trust product...
MIKE NORMAN at Hard Assets Investor recently spoke to Kevin Feldman,managing director, investment, at the World Gold Council in New York.
Hard Assets Investor: We have recently seen some participants pull out of the gold market, notably some of the bigger hedge funds. How is that impacting investment, if at all?
Feldman: What we've seen is a lot of volatility in the first half of the year, primarily on the back of concerns about Fed tapering. So the same forces that are at work in the bond market with hedge funds and other more speculative-oriented investors, trying to get ahead of the Fed, even though the Fed has said that they're really going to be making very data-dependent decisions going forward, a lot of people are trying to get ahead of it. And we did see this rise in volatility and selling of gold in the first half of the year.
That's really abated now. And we're up about 11% off of the lows that we saw a few months ago. But gold is down about 20% year-to-date.
HAI: Has the price decline triggered what you would categorize as more or less the longer-term...maybe people who want to own physical, who now see that as a more attractive price level to enter? Is that a natural support for the market there?
Feldman: Well, this has probably been the biggest thing that we've witnessed this year, which has been this huge demand in physical for investment on the back of some of the price decline that we saw earlier in the year. I think there was some speculation that that was going to be a very short-term effect in April or May, as a result of lower gold prices.
But in fact, it's been a much more enduring effect, where we've seen record amounts of physical bar and coin buying, primarily coming out of Asia markets, India and China being some of the largest markets where we've seen gold demand, but really, across a whole variety of markets, where we've seen sustained demand for bars and coins for investment this year.
HAI: So if I'm understanding you correctly, you haven't really seen any spillover effect from the hedge fund or liquidation to the broader market, people who are interested in owning the physical long term?
Feldman: What I'd say is that we've seen a lot of talk and a lot of focus on the more speculative aspects of gold investing, which we've always viewed as a more tactical way to invest in gold, as opposed to the longer-term, more strategic investment in gold, which could happen either through physical bars and coins, or in the US and Western European markets, increasingly through the ETFs.
So even if you look at the ETF flows this year, you really see two different types of buyers. You see some of the short-term, tactical, more speculative buyers that have exited. But then you see this much broader base of strategic buyers that are still very much invested in gold. And we see them responding, again, to some of the lower prices, as more value points to enter gold, in terms of having allocation to it in their portfolio.
HAI: Would that include the so-called long-term passive investors?
Feldman: The ETFs have really been more of a retail phenomenon to date. We actually think that we're going to see more institutional buying and long-only buying from pensions and endowments and foundations in the future.
We've started to see that in Latin American countries. We've seen it in Japan. I think you're going to see it in the US market as well, because gold's role in a portfolio, in terms of the two things that it really does for you, is to protect your purchasing power long-term, and add diversification, in terms of really just smoothing out the ride between the volatility that comes with stocks and bonds.
So those are two things that any type of long-only investor would want. And we think that there's going to be a lot more demand for it in some of the larger pools of capital present in the pension system.
HAI: We've seen a lot of interest on the part of official buying from, for example, China. Russia has been a big buyer in the last year. Those purchases have slowed down. But will it continue?
Feldman: I think it's important to put this in perspective. Up until a few years ago, the central banks were net sellers of gold. And that had been a multiyear phenomenon. And it reversed. And what we've seen now, this year, is a little bit of slowing. But we're still seeing them in a net buying behavior. And we expect that to continue certainly through the end of this year, that central banks will be net buyers of gold this year.
So when you look across all of the different sources of demand – and this is probably one of the most important things to understand about gold – what's unique about it is that it is global, and it does have multiple sources of demand across these different investor segments, be it through ETFs, through bars and coins, from central bank buying. And we think that all of the demand motivators are still in place for it to continue.
HAI: Let's talk a little bit about the Dollar again and its trends. Would you say that's one of the primary drivers right now, concern over the longer-term exchange value of the Dollar, maybe a depreciation in the Dollar?
Feldman: No. I think investors really are very focused on the Fed right now. And we've seen this since the beginning of the year. In some ways, it's an over-focus on the Fed. Because even the Fed has told us they don't know exactly where the economy is going. And they're going to pay a lot of attention to the data; they're going to make decisions based on data.
But investors have been very focused on that and have been rearranging their portfolios – in our opinion, perhaps too rapidly – in response to what they view as the risk of rising interest rates, even though it's going to be a very slow process.
HAI: The Fed mentioned a 6.5% unemployment rate before it would even consider raising rates. And we're now talking about tapering, which is not a rate increase. It's just a cutback on the amount of bond buying every month...
Feldman: That's right. The Fed has said they're going to slowly, gradually, reduce the size of their balance sheet. They're going to begin that activity before they begin looking at raising rates, which is still several years away. But again, investors have looked at all of that.
Some class of investors, not the ones that are patient, who have more strategic asset allocation policies and are sticking to them, but investors that are trying to be more tactical, or trying to get ahead of the Fed and make decisions that ultimately could be many years out into the future, before they see the evidence of what investors are speculating about right now.
HAI: Now GLD, which is the Gold Council's product, that's a huge instrument. How much outflow resulted in the past year from that particular instrument?
Feldman: That's right. We were really innovators, pioneers, in creating the first physical gold ETF, the format of which has now been used to create many other commodity ETFs as well. It's just about nine years old. We have about 1.1 million investors in it, just to give a sense of its scale.
It's one of the largest and most liquid ETFs in the world. We have seen $20 billion of outflow this year. Again, to put that into perspective, we saw most of that happen in the first half of the year. And as we've looked into the data and analyzed it more, most of that outflow activity has been very much geared to the larger, more speculative type of investors. The vast majority of the 1.1 million account holders of the ETF are still in place.
HAI: In the last year and a half we saw a tremendous number of geopolitical events: Syria, Egypt...We had a near-default in the United States...the government shutdown, complete chaotic political dysfunction – normally things that would drive gold. But it's been kind of quiet.
Feldman: What I'd say is that gold really helps you over the long term, in terms of diversifying risks that are hard to spot. So any one short-term risk, I think, is difficult to point to; for example, the most recent climb-down from the latest set of political events in Washington. I think a lot of asset classes were pricing in the idea that ultimately, Congress and the president would find a way forward. And so gold didn't react to that, whereas, if you looked at not this most recent FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] minutes but the one right before, where there was a little bit of a surprise, gold did react to that.
So gold tends to react in larger ways to, again, things that are harder to spot, surprises that come along, which is why it's probably not a good idea to try to market-time your entry and exit points into gold. It's better just to have it as a foundation asset, in a portfolio; small amounts go a long way. We think, for the average investor who is in a 60/40 equity fixed-income portfolio, your classic sort of balanced portfolio, allocating 5 to 6% to gold is about what they need in terms of getting its diversifying power across the rest of the portfolio.
HAI: Five to 6%...Given that figure, is gold still underowned at this point? I think there are still a lot of people who don't have gold.
Feldman: Great question. Gold is still very much underowned, in our opinion. You've got less than 1% of people's investment assets that are allocated to it. And if you go into some of the institutional capital pools that we talked about, it's even smaller than that. It's fractions of 1%. 
So we think that there's a lot of opportunity for investors to really recognize the unique behavior that gold has in a portfolio, diversifying not just stocks, but bonds as well.
And if you look at bonds right now, which were considered more of the risk-free or the lower-risk asset class, they're actually becoming a riskier asset class in terms of where the upper projection of interest rates is going to take us. And gold investing can act as a very strong diversifier. Again, for surprises that are difficult to spot in the future, it's good to have a small amount in a portfolio.
HAI: All right. Well, we'll leave it there. Thank you very much. That's Kevin Feldman from the World Gold Council. This is Mike Norman, saying, see you next time.

Abdullah Bin Mohammad



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